With the York-Adams League high school girls’ basketball regular season drawing to a close on Tuesday night, most of the spots for the upcoming Y-A playoffs have been clinched.
That isn’t to say, however, that the playoff seeding has been cemented.
Six of the eight berths have been clinched already, with two teams — Division II No. 1 seed Susquehannock (11-2 D-II) and D-I No. 3 seed Spring Grove (8-4 D-I) — assured of their seeding.
Delone Catholic and York Catholic have also clinched playoff spots out of D-III, while Central York and Dallastown have clinched berths out of D-I.
So let’s take a look at the possibilities.
First, keep in mind the tie-breakers. From highest to lowest, the tie-breakers are: 1. head-to-head record; 2. record vs. first-place team in division; 3. record vs. second-place team in the division, etc. If teams are still tied after that, it would come down to a coin toss.
Division I: All three berths have already been locked down in D-I. With one game left, Dallastown (9-2) and Central York (9-2) are tied for the lead and battling for the division crown.
If the Wildcats defeat South Western on Tuesday they will clinch the No. 1 seed from the division by virtue of tiebreaker No. 2 or No. 3 (record vs. South Western). Dallastown would be 2-0 vs. the Mustangs, while Central would be 1-1 against the Mustangs.
A Dallastown loss to South Western, coupled with a Panthers victory over a red-hot New Oxford team (5-6), will earn Central the top spot. Losses by both Dallastown and Central York Tuesday still favors the Wildcats by tiebreaker No. 2 or No. 3. (New Oxford and South Western would both be 6-6 in that scenario).
Division III: In Division III, the Delone Catholic Squirettes (11-0) have the edge on parochial rival York Catholic (10-1) at this point
However, with the two programs set to square off Tuesday at York Catholic, the seeds are not yet assured.
A Delone victory would clinch the No. 1 seed, while the Irish can force a tie with the upset. If York Catholic wins, the two teams would have identical 11-1 records and identical marks vs. divisional foes. That would leave the No. 1 seed up to the unpredictable tiebreaker No. 8 — a coin toss.
Division II: The fun continues in Division II, where only one of the three spots available is secured. With one regular-season contest remaining Tuesday, both Kennard-Dale (8-5) and Dover (8-5) have the upper hand right now over York Suburban (7-6) and West York (7-6).
Keep in mind that the top three teams from D-I are guaranteed playoff spots, while the top two teams in D-II and D-III are guaranteed playoff berths. The eighth spot goes to the third-place team from D-II or D-III with the highest District 3 power rating.
However, all of the D-II teams in question have a significant edge over the D-III No. 3 team, Bermudian Springs (6-5 D-III), so the Eagles are basically eliminated.
There are four likely scenarios of how things could unfold in D-II and all involve tiebreakers. The pivotal contests Tuesday are Dover at York Suburban, Northeastern at West York and Kennard-Dale at Susquehannock.
The easiest one to figure out is Scenario 1. If both Dover and K-D win their contests on Tuesday, both will lock up spots with 9-5 divisional records. The Rams and Eagles split their regular-season pairings, so in that situation K-D would be the No. 2 seed by virtue of tiebreaker No. 2, a 1-1 record vs. Susquehannock. Dover is 0-2 vs. the Warriors.
Scenario 2 would entail a Dover victory over Suburban, a Susquehannock triumph over K-D and a West York win over Northeastern (0-13). In that situation the Eagles would be the No. 2 seed with a 9-5 mark. The Bulldogs and Rams would both be 8-6 and 1-1 vs. one another, but West York would take the No. 3 spot over K-D by virtue of a 2-0 record against Suburban this year (tiebreaker No. 4).
Scenario 3 would have K-D defeating Susquehannock, Suburban downing Dover and West York beating Northeastern. In that situation the Rams would take the No. 2 seed with a 9-5 mark. The Bulldogs would win a three-way tie with Dover and Suburban at 8-6 by virtue of tiebreaker No. 1, a 2-0 mark against the Trojans while Dover and Suburban and Dover and West York would have split 1-1, for the No. 3 seed.
Scenario 4 would be the messiest. That would have both K-D and Dover losing and both Suburban and West York winning. In this situation, all four teams would be tied with 8-6 marks. West York would earn the No. 2 seed with its 2-0 record vs. Suburban (tiebreaker No. 1). The Trojans would take the No. 3 spot by virtue of tiebreaker No. 2, their 1-1 mark against Susquehannock. Dover and K-D would both be 0-2 vs. the Warriors.
So, to simplify, K-D and Dover are both in with victories, otherwise West York is in for the team that loses. If both K-D and Dover fall, both the Bulldogs (if they likely defeat Northeastern) and Trojans are in.
Reach Ryan Vandersloot at firstname.lastname@example.org.