History, as we've said, is not on the side of Democrats seeking to claim the 4th Congressional District seat.
District voters have sent an unbroken line of Republicans to Washington, D.C., for 45 years, starting with former Rep. Bill Goodling's father, George, in 1967.
But the two Democratic candidates do have an outside chance this year, particularly if GOP primary voters misread the current political climate and put up a far-right candidate for November's General Election.
A poll conducted for The York Dispatch shows a surprising number of Republicans in the district consider themselves to be "moderate" or even "liberal." Some said they're turned off by the party's embrace of the extreme.
Republican John Conaway of Spring Garden Township reported feeling alienated by a GOP that has drifted "too far right" on social issues and "panders to the wealthy."
But if those who do vote in Tuesday's primary nominate an extreme candidate, voters like Conaway might just decide to stay home for the main event -- or bolt the party altogether and vote Democrat.
Also, this is a presidential election year, which traditionally means higher turnout from both parties.
Yet Republicans haven't been able to work up much enthusiasm for their presumptive presidential nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. That could further dampen party turnout.
Before this year's congressional redistricting, which added heavily Democratic Harrisburg, the district was 53 percent Republican. The GOP now has a smaller, 47 percent-to-38 percent edge over the Democrats, with 14 percent independent or third-party.
If fewer Republicans turn out this year because they're disillusioned for one reason or another and Democrats are able to turn out the vote ... who knows?
Democrats might have a chance to elect their first congressman since George A. Goodling reclaimed his seat from Democrat Nathaniel N. Craley Jr. in the 1966 election.
Their choices this year are Harrisburg-area attorney Ken Lee and York Township defense worker Harry Perkinson -- two Democrats whose positions are similar. That might explain why an even larger number of Democrats -- 84.9 percent -- were undecided in the Dispatch poll.
Both men cite the economy and jobs as their main concerns, and say a combination of education programs and investment in job-creating infrastructure projects will lead to economic growth.
Both favor a fairer tax system that would increase revenue to help deal with the country's debt.
Both were disturbed by last year's debt ceiling debate debacle, which Perkinson says prompted him to run for office.
Neither favors a balanced budget amendment, embraced by their Republican counter parts, which Perkinson says would hamstring the federal government in its response to natural disasters or geopolitical crises.
As we said, they are not far apart.
But in our opinion, Perkinson makes a better case.
"The Republican Party has forgotten that the middle class is the backbone of the United States and runs our economy," he said. "Their stubbornness in last year's fight over extending the payroll tax showed how much they are out of touch. The Republicans have done little to nothing to focus on the most important issue of our time -- creating jobs."
Perkinson is the best choice for Democrats Tuesday.