Romney up 10 points over Obama among voters in the 4th

YORK DISPATCH PRIMARY POLL

Methodology

The York Dispatch primary poll was conducted from Thursday, April 5, through Tuesday, April 10, using telephone interviews. This was prior to Rick Santorum dropping out of the race for president. Only people who have voted in previous primaries and are planning on voting in the upcoming primary were included in the poll. Respondents also had to be either a Democrat or a Republican.

The sample size for the poll is 400. A sample of this size has a maximum margin of error of +/-4.9 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means if the population of primary voters were interviewed, their answers would be within this range of the sample s answers 95 percent of the time.

Click here to see full poll results, and look below for all of our poll coverage:

• Poll: Some voters say GOP too far right (4/17/2012)

• Poll: Voters would support Platts if he were running (4/16/2012)

• Poll: Jobs, benefits top priorities for area voters (4/16/2012)

• Poll: Reilly leads Perry in the 4th, but most voters still uncertain (4/13/2012)

• Poll: Romney up 10 points over Obama among voters in the 4th (4/13/2012)

Voters in the 4th Congressional District favor Mitt Romney in the race for president, but voter preference wasn't neatly aligned with party affiliation, according to the results of a 400-voter poll of the area.

With 12.8 percent of voters undecided, Romney beat President Barack Obama 194-155, or 48.5 percent to 38.8 percent, according to a Polk-Lepson poll commissioned by The York Dispatch and released Friday.

But the numbers show Obama got 57.5 percent of the Democratic vote and the former Massachusetts governor took 68.7 percent of the Republican vote. About 25 percent of Democrats said they'd vote for Romney, and 22.4 percent of Republicans said they'd vote for Obama.

"No candidate ever gets 100 percent of the vote of their own party ... from school board to the White House," said Bob Kefauver, chairman of the Democratic Party of York County.

Loyalty: He said he was surprised by how low the party loyalty numbers are for both parties, but he believes Obama will gain support now that former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has dropped out of the race.

"The dialogue will shift, and it will be between the president and Romney," he said. "Now the contrast will be between the two nominees. The president hasn't had much of a chance to speak on any issues directly because there wasn't one candidate."

Bob Wilson, chairman of the York County Republican Party, said the support for Romney didn't shock him.

Wilson was stumped for reasons why 22.4 percent of Republican respondents would say they'd vote for the Democratic incumbent, but he doesn't think candidate preference is ever "going to be clearly defined."

Primary: For the primary, Republican voters in the survey favored Romney for the Republican presidential nomination by 42 percent, or 90 of the 214 Republican respondents.

The poll was taken April 5-10, ending on the day Santorum announced he was suspending his campaign. The poll results do not include opinions gathered after that decision.

Santorum came in second, with 53 votes, or 24.8 percent.

The significant gulf between Romney and Santorum surprised pollster David Polk, a principal partner in Polk-Lepson and professor of behavioral sciences at York College.

"I'm somewhat taken aback by the gap between Romney and Santorum," he said. "If this is how the thing would have played out, Santorum made a very smart move getting out of the race, assuming York County is a microcosm of the state."

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, scored 17 votes, or 7.9 percent

of Republicans polled. Capturing the least support was Pennsylvania native Newt Gingrich. The former speaker of the House came in last, with 6 votes, or 2.8 percent.

There were 48 voters, 22.4 percent, who were undecided.

Facing off: While Santorum couldn't have defeated Romney in the primary, he could have beaten Obama in November -- at least among the decided voters who were surveyed -- had he stayed in the race.

All voters were asked whether they would vote for Santorum or Obama if those two men opposed each other in November.

Of the 400 respondents, 12 percent (48 people) were undecided. There were 189 voters, or 47.3 percent, saying they'd vote for Santorum and 163, 40.8 percent, voting for Obama.

Again, party didn't define results.

Of the 186 Democrats, 57 said they'd vote for Santorum. Of the 214 Republicans, 55 said they'd vote for Obama.

-- Reach Christina Kauffman at 505-5436, ckauffman@yorkdis patch.com, or follow her on Twitter at @YDYork County.